Why can't Venezuelans just wait for normal elections?

By Michael O'Callaghan Cañizares.

A post on the BBC recently describing protests in Venezuela correctly mentions that one of the Opposition's primary requests to ease the current situation is to call for "early elections". Are Venezuelans seeking to oust a democratically elected government before its term? Is this an elaborate grab for power by one political entity against its rival? Can't the Opposition just wait until the scheduled elections in late 2018? Why will they not sit down for dialogue with the government as has been offered to them?

To understand why those don't feel like acceptable options, you have to first realise that:

This is NOT just Right vs Left.

Whatever your personal views on capitalism or socialism may be, and whatever definition of these you consider true, the political conflict in Venezuela has evolved considerably past the standard differences that political parties all over the world have regarding management of their economy. The Opposition in Venezuela is composed of political parties with very different orientations, including some that are explicitly socialist. The thread that unites them is being against the Chavista government.

Try to envision how bad a government would need to be in your country before every current political party would unite and dilute their individual identity, plus agree to a single shared candidate, just to improve their chances of bringing it down. Imagine the Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, SNP and other parties in the UK, or even the Democrats and Republicans in the US, shaking hands and burying the hatchet. It would be a cold day in hell.

With the world’s highest criminal mortality rate, scarcity of basic foods, toiletries and medicine, and 700% inflation (depending on who you ask, some put it much higher) Venezuelans right now feel like they are on the brink of Armageddon. Standard political differences are the sorts of problems most Venezuelans wish they had. There are a huge number of symptoms and surrounding issues, but fundamentally normal political debate is now beside the point. When one party controls all but one branch of government plus the military, and declares the actions of the only non-affiliated branch illegal and void, then they have left no fair way to have that debate; hence solutions to the country’s myriad problems cannot be found or acted upon in the usual way, which is why:

Waiting means allowing the crisis to get worse:

As I've said, this is not your average Right vs Left debate. The Venezuelan government consistently plays down the damage to its economy and blames it completely on outside factors. When you refuse to admit you've made a mistake, then you can't rectify it.

This is one of the conundrums facing the Chavista regime. After so long in power, to admit that the problem has anything to do with mismanagement or policy (or corruption) means to admit that they caused it. Since their objective, which in the early days may charitably have been said to improve the lot of the average Venezuelan, has deteriorated to such an extent that clinging to power is now their only priority, they have to keep as many of their followers as possible believing in the revolution and thus cannot change the message. In practical terms this means they are doing absolutely nothing about the problem, and it is getting a lot worse as time goes on. Deaths due to lack of access to medicine are rising steadily, as is malnutrition and child mortality (the Health Minister was sacked just a few days ago basically because she admitted this). And yet they still refuse international aid. A change in government would not realistically be able to turn that around immediately, but there is urgency in simply stopping things from deteriorating further.

To make matters worse, even if there was any kind of sincere attempt at correcting the economy, they are clearly not the ones to do it. The Venezuelan Finance Minister has said he simply does not believe in inflation, and that it's all the fault of greedy corporations and some sort of (again) external conspiracy. I don't mean he doesn't believe that just about Venezuela, I mean he doesn't believe in inflation at all as a concept ... Period. So expecting them to correct the damage they have done is like expecting someone to engineer a plane even though they don't believe in gravity or aerodynamics.

Venezuelans have already waited a long time:

Chavismo has been in power in Venezuela for 18 years. I remember clearly being a kid and my dad listening on the radio to the results of the first election Chávez won (which incidentally he won by a large margin including many middle-class votes). My dad and a good few others knew that regardless of all his talk of representing the people, you could never believe in a man who's first grab at power was through a military uprising; gaining office via an election was for Chávez only Plan B. He changed the Constitution to extend the presidential term and allow indefinite re-election of the President (that’s a whole story in itself but will have to wait for another time). He spoke often of his respect for democracy and the will of the people but he redefined who he meant by “The People” to only ever include his own supporters; anyone else was an oligarch and an enemy, and probably a traitor.

“But he was democratically elected” you say, and democratically re-elected. True, and after his death Nicolás Maduro also won an election. But what you may have failed to notice about elections in Venezuela in the latter years were the widespread cases of voters being picked up at their homes, bussed in and coerced into voting for the government, flagrant use of public money for campaigning in favour of the PSUV (the Chavista party), barefaced violation of electoral laws regarding propaganda, people in public-sector jobs being threatened (and risking being thrown out of work simply for missing a pro-government rally), pro-government armed motorcycle gangs (colectivos) terrorising Opposition areas and scaring people away from voting stations, and a whole list of other abuses.

All we heard was that the votes themselves were valid and there was no actual fraud. But no fraud doesn't mean fair and free elections. And even with all that, Maduro only managed a small lead over the main Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles (200,000 or so votes total or about 1.6%). Even these tactics were not enough in the 2015 parliamentary elections, where the Opposition destroyed the government majority finally demonstrating beyond doubt that the PSUV no longer had public support.

Thus began the transition into full blown authoritarianism as the PSUV realised they no longer had the people in thrall. The PSUV reacted by pressuring all Supreme Court judges whose term of office was due to end during the new National Assembly’s term resign so the outgoing Assembly could pack the Court with loyalists before the handing over control. This Court has then proceeded to invalidate the election of several new representatives on a trumped-up pretext so as to reduce the Opposition majority to below the crucial two-thirds threshold that would among other things enable impeachment of public officials, and to block every move the Assembly has made since being elected until eventually deciding they couldn’t be bothered with the hassle of replying to each move and simply invalidated the national assembly altogether. The outcry this provoked both nationally and internationally caused Maduro to order them to partially roll back this move, in the clearest possible demonstration of the subservience of the supposedly independent Court to the Executive. They no longer even pay the elected Opposition representatives their salaries.

Basically all this means that:

Waiting doesn't guarantee there will ever be an election:

Regional mayoral elections are already several months overdue; the first elections since Chavismo’s defeat in the National Assembly. So it is clear Nicolas Maduro's regime is nervous of losing even more ground to the Opposition as all independent polls now indicate support for them is at a historic low .

Their assurances that Presidential elections will be held on time in late 2018 is simply a ploy to buy more time, as were previous feints towards dialogue in late 2016, after which the government simply didn't bother to uphold any of its agreed commitments. The regime’s move away from standard democracy is made even more clear in their call for a new constitution to be written by a constituent assembly, 50% of the members of which is to be drawn from pro-government unions and other interest groups "recognised" (read "cherry picked") by the government, thus guaranteeing that any change they propose will pass. Who is to say that the 2018 presidential elections won’t be the victim of some constitutional change, another term extension or the like?

The Venezuelan people are sick and tired of playing in a rigged game, so waiting is no longer an option. All that is left now is to apply whatever pressure they can and see where it gets them. Is there an actual plan? No one who might know is saying. Right now Venezuela is like the hostage who demands you either kill me or let me go. The problem is that the kidnapper may well think the latter will lead to his doom, so he has nothing to lose by choosing the former.

What happens now nobody knows, but there is no turning back.